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Term End Point Index Annuities 2001       Return to Library Index
The market crab-walked during the last four months. A low point was reached in early April, indexes trended up through late May and in the last two months have wafted southward, but still remain about 8% above the April low. Some seers have examined the market movements since late May and concluded the stock market has a lot further to fall; these are probably the same pundits that extrapolated the movements of gas prices based on an excruciatingly small time period and predicted $3 a gallon gas by last 4th of July. The reality is a bullish stock market leads an economic recovery, not the other way around, and we are probably in the next bull market.

The millennium bear market was the nastiest bear market in a generation. However, unlike the ‘70s and ‘80s bear markets in which investors left the stock market and didn’t return, the millennium bear market is causing investors to rethink how they are going to stay in the market not whether they will remain. Individuals now understand that stock vehicles can provide higher returns than fixed rate alternatives, but they also understand that higher potential returns means higher potential losses. For consumers that don’t have the time or temperament for equity instruments, but still want higher potential returns, index annuities using a term end point methodology are an answer.

A term end point crediting structure measures index movement over a period of years and credits this interest at the end of the period, annual gains and losses are ignored. Almost every index annuity with this structure averages index values for the final year of the period, this averaging means the annuity misses about half of any final year index gains, but it also means you’d only feel about half the effects of a final year bear market.  

Since term end point designs don’t lock-in annual index movements, their option cost is lower (but almost every term end point index annuity does treat a death as the period end and credits any interest earned).

A lower cost permits term end point designs to credit, today, 60% to 85% of the index movement if you hang around for the typical seven to ten year period. If the index stays flat or declines, the worst the consumer gets back is 110% to 130% of the premium, depending upon the annuity selected. In a bad market the premium is protected against loss, in a good market the potential interest credited is higher than other savings vehicles.

The chart shows the hypothetical yearly returns for a term end point index annuity, averaging the final year’s index values, using nine year periods. The numbers at the bottom of the chart represent the first year of the nine year periods (the first number represents 1/1/82 to 1/1/91 and the last 1/1/92 to 1/1/01). I’ve also included the effective period return for the average certificates of deposit for the periods.

The point of the chart is not to show that index annuities can produce higher returns than certificates of deposit; it was a bullish time for the market. The purpose is to illustrate that term end point index annuities can generate very respectable returns in good markets, and suggest that perhaps some consumers would rather use a vehicle that let’s them get credit for most of an index increase, while guaranteeing at least a minimum return, rather than being exposed to all of the potential gain and loss of the market.

Should You Ever Re-Enter An Index Annuity? 

The S&P 500 is still 15% lower than it was a year ago and down roughly 8% from the beginning of the year. All markets go up and down, and over a sufficient time frame a stock market’s negative periods are offset and overcome. So, an investor tries to ignore today’s losses and concentrate on a brighter tomorrow.

 However, index annuities protect consumers from market loss to principal. If an owner gives the annuity contract back to the insurer the owner would get their premium back, minus any surrender charges.

This raises a question - Would it ever make sense to surrender a term end point structured index annuity, pay the surrender charges, and buy another contract?

From a purely financial point of view the answer could be yes, if the current value of the index had fallen enough from its starting point to offset both the surrender charges and any possible index gains during the surrender/purchase period, and if the new participation rate or asset fee was no worse than the initial one.

 

 

30 Second Guide To Success     Return to Library Index
Rank Your Clients - Who are your best clients? A “best” client may not be the top commission generator if they require too much hand holding. For each client determine the revenue they’ve produced within the last quarter and year, and how much they’re going to generate, how much service work they’ve required, and how long they’ve been with you. The old 80/20 rule holds true. Don’t spend your time going after one transaction clients.

Fire Clients That Don’t Fit Your Profile - If someone is a jerk or if they want an area that you don’t want to specialize in, dump them.

Poll Your Clients - Ask them “If there was just one thing you could change about us what would it be?”

Understand Your Clients - Put yourself in their shoes and look at the way you now operate. Are you easy to do business with?

Own Your Problems - When you screw up, admit it, fix it, and move on.

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2nd Quarter EIA Sales Set Record 
Second quarter index annuity sales were $1.6 billion. Sales were up 27% when compared with the previous quarter, up 15% over the same quarter a year ago and eclipsed the former quarterly record of $1.5 billion set during the euphoric first quarter of 2000. Sales for the first half of 2001 are $2.86 billion placing the industry on target for another year of record sales. Index life sales were up slightly to approach $20 million for the second quarter.

As has been the case since we started tracking sales, production is concentrated in the top carriers. Allianz, Midland National and American Equity alone are responsible for over half of second quarter sales while the combined market share of the thirty smallest players is less than 15%.

Index Annuity 2nd Qtr Sales Leaders


Even though sales activity broke new ground, the landscape was quiet. Although American National and Safeco left the index market there were few new product introductions, and product tweaking was more in evidence than bold new creations.

Nineteen out of twenty index annuities are sold by insurance agents with financial institutions and broker/dealer distribution kicking in the remaining sale. Jackson National and Keyport are key players in both the bank and wirehouse channels. AmerUS was first in sales through broker/dealers; Lincoln Benefit was the third largest player in banks.

 

Allianz  $335,420,000
Midland National 281,100,000
American Equity 227,535,422
AmerUS Group  118,180,745
Jackson National 98,913,925
Conseco 91,453,493
ING USG Annuity  66,849,815
Fidelity & Guaranty  55,383,262
Keyport Life 50,443,000
LSW 40,059,463

Products with agent “street level” commissions of 11% or more made up 36% of sales, this was down slightly from a year ago. However, while 1 in 3 index annuities sold a year ago had an agent commission of under 6%, this was only true for 1 out of 10 annuities sold in the second quarter.

The average index annuity premium was $29,396 which is on par with the previous quarter, average premium ranged from $5,000 to $58,600. Slightly more than half of index annuities were purchased with qualified funds.

Sales By Other Indices
Even though ten carriers offer bond or other equity indexes the S&P 500 represents 96% of industry sales.

Market Composition
The market has four fewer carriers than it had a year ago, but more products are available. This is due to the add
ition of multiple index choices within products and greater selection in crediting methods.

8/00 8/01
45 Equity Index Companies 41 Equity Index Companies
124 Products By Surrender Period & Structure 126 Products By Surrender Period & Structure
177 Products Plus Bonus or Cap Options, Indices 189 Products Plus Bonus or Cap Options, Indices

Rate Guarantee Periods
Three years ago almost two-thirds of the products guaranteed all of their parts for the entire surrender period. Today, three-quarters of the index annuities may change their rate and/or cap and/or spread before the end of the surrender charges.

Methodologies
Products using some degree of averaging account for 90% of sales and annual reset designs represent 83% of sales.

Maximum Issue Age
Over 75% of the annuities have a maximum non-qualified issue age greater than 80. A maximum issue age of 90 is offered by five carriers.

Minimum Interest Guarantee
All but five products credit a minimum interest rate of 3%, however, only 17% of products base this rate on 100% of premium. Over half credit 3% on 90% of premium and balance use a lesser percentage.

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1 Year Annuities Instead of CDs    Return to Library Index
The current interest rate cycle continues its downward arc and rates on one year certificates of deposit are around 4.00% to 4.25%. Traditional fixed annuity rates have also fallen, but you can still find many fixed annuities with first year rates of 6% or better.

Why aren’t CD owners rushing to buy these higher interest traditional annuities? The reason is a psychological need for liquidity. Many consumers won’t permit their money to be subjected to any penalty if the penalty lasts over one year. The typical fixed annuity has a longer penalty, and so, the consumer stays in one year CDs.

One possibility for these time-averse consumers are fixed annuities with a one year surrender period. There are several fixed annuities available that still offer a rate around 5% and provide bank savers an alternative with higher interest, tax deferral and the one year horizons they seek. However, certain index annuities could result in these savers earning twice the interest their bank will pay over the coming year.

The most competitive 1 Year Term EIAs are offered by Keyport and Lafayette Life

The most competitive index annuities on the market with a one year surrender period are the Keyport KeyIndex 1 Year and the Lafayette Marquis Flex 1 Year. The KeyIndex credits interest based on 40% participation rate of the S&P 500 index gain up to a maximum of 10%. If you look at the last 50 years, this crediting structure would have beat current CD rates over half of the time

The Lafayette Marquis Flex participates in 100% of any S&P 500 index increase up to 8%, and unlike any other index annuity out there, credits a minimum of 3% interest even if the index declines. If you plug in their current rates and look at the last fifty years the structure beats today’s CD rates over 60% of the time and would have credited 8% over half of the time.

Both the Marquis Flex and KeyIndex offer an attractive story in many financial environments, but a combination of a bear market and low bank rates gives these products a very strong story to tell.

As I write this the S&P 500 index is hanging in the 1100’s. On September first one year ago the S&P 500 closed at 1520.77. If one year from now the S&P 500 has crawled back to a level of 1300 - which would still be 15% below where it was in 2000, the Marquis Flex would credit around 8% - roughly double the current interest paid on CDs. Or, if the S&P 500 took until 2002 to struggle back to near it’s previous high the KeyIndex would credit 10% interest in a 4% world.

Bank savers have a choice. They can either lock in 4% at the bank, or have the opportunity to earn up to 10% with a worse case scenario that returns 100% of their principal, or, have a shot at earning up to 8% interest with a minimum interest floor of 3% - only a point less than the bank is paying.

At the end of the index annuity year the customer can put the money back in the bank, let it stay in the annuity for another year, or transfer to an index annuity with a longer term. The time for introducing index annuities to consumers is now. Both carriers report increased sales in these products, so perhaps you need to be the first one to tell this index annuity story.

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The Growth Of Multiple Indices     Return to Library Index
Although the S&P 500 index is still the dominant external index utilized a growing number of carriers offer additional equity and bond indices. Delta Life offered an international index when their first product was available. In 1996, Jackson National introduced an annuity with four index alternatives and a fixed account. Their multiple index design was not initially copied, but a number of carriers began offering a fixed account alternative within an index product.

The first annuity basing crediting on movements of the Dow Jones Industrial Average was introduced by American Equity in the Summer of 1999. Today ten carriers offer indices beyond the S&P 500. The number of EIAs offering other indexes are:

Other Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average (15)
International (1)
Lehman Bros Aggregate Bond (2)
Lehman Bros High Yield Bond (2)
Lehman Bros U.S. Treasury (2)
Nasdaq 100 (10)
Russell 2000 (9)
S&P 400 (9)

A new index annuity variation offers consumers the ability to rebalance the percentages placed in the fixed and indexed accounts on an annual basis. A couple of carriers automatically rebalance the entire account each year.

Using additional indices can reduce overall volatility, the hope is that when one index zigs the other will zag and in a downward market losses can be lessened.  Our models indicate a combination of a fixed account and an equity index, or combining a bond index and equity index, does reduce volatility. Putting together different equity indices can also reduce volatility.

As a very recent example, if you look at one year periods of the S&P 500 ending during the first eight months of 2001 the worst return was a loss of 26.83% and even the best one year period showed a loss of 1.49%. In fact, most annual periods for the year reported double digit losses.

By contrast, the worst Dow Jones Industrial Average year showed a loss of 15.47% and only a few weeks during the year would have resulted in double digit losses. In fact, the Dow delivered positive returns nearly half the time and produced a 10.16% gain for one period. A combination of the two indexes would have produced a smoother ride than simply holding the S&P 500.

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Talking Pictures      Return to Library Index
Although The Jazz Singer movie is usually credited as being the first talking picture, the truth is the first movie with an actual soundtrack was invented in 1905, twenty years before The Jazz Singer premiered. This cinematic treasure, whose title has been lost to the ages, was directed by Steven Stereoski, who also invented the sound system that bears his name.

1905 audiences greeted Steven Stereoski’s film with great enthusiasm. The problem is the audience had no way to convey to others how wonderful sound movies were. Exit surveys found viewer after viewer saying “Talking pictures are the greatest thing since....” but the viewers were unable to finish the sentence.

Because moviegoers couldn’t explain the magic of sound on the silver screen, Stereoski’s film was a box office disaster and silent movies reigned for another two decades.

The reason you have never heard of Steven Stereoski, and another inventor is given the credit Stereoski rightfully deserves, is because another individual, O. F. Rohwedder, had not yet created the invention that was responsible for the technological explosion in the twentieth century. You see, Otto Frederick Rohwedder invented an automatic bread slicer in the 1920‘s.

Coinciding with the announcement of Rohwedder’s invention The Jazz Singer premiered. The voice of Al Jolson filling the theatre thrilled audiences, and thanks to Mr. Rohwedder’s invention these people had something to say. Now when asked “How was it?” The moviegoer could remark “Talking pictures are the greatest thing since sliced bread” and an industry was reborn. 

The sliced bread metaphor became the most popular advertising comparison used in the western world and resulted in a proliferation of inventions, consumer products, and played a major role in the final triumph of capitalism over communism. Otto Rohwedder lived to a ripe old age amid the adoration of marketing people everywhere. Steve Stereoski died in 1930, ironically, after falling into a kneading machine at a local bakery.

The lesson to be learned from all of this is it’s not enough to simply create a better product, to make dough you also knead to be able to relate the product benefits to something the customer already understands

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Bear Market     Return to Library Index
In six weeks, from April 4th to May 21st, the S&P 500 recaptured over 200 points, or half of the previous year’s loss. Unfortunately, this initial burst was not the beginning of the next bull market, but rather a bear rally. The index spent the Summer giving back the gain before plunging even further.

Events of September pushed a tottering economy over the edge and so length of this millennium bear market is still being written. The 21st of September witnessed the 558th day of the market’s decline. Although markets came back from this low as of the end of September the S&P 500 is still down 32% from its high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 25%, and the NASDAQ has plummeted 70%. It was the worst September for the stock market ever with dreaded October days still to come.

If this is a “normal” bear market we would bust through the previous March 2000 high of 1527 sometime next Spring. In fact, two previous bear markets, the ones of 1966 and 1990, were already over by this point in the cycle and hitting new highs.

The problem with bear markets is they refuse to follow a script. The 80-82 Bear took three years to regain a top, as did the 68-70 Bear. The OPEC bear of the ‘70s outlasted the terms of three presidents while going from peak to valley to peak. On another historical note, if the S&P 500 fails to close above 1320 at the end of 2001 we will see two back-to-back years with negative returns. This would only be the second time this has happened in the last half century.

There is strong talk of a prolonged recession and the market is reacting to this talk. What is the long term outlook for the economy and the market?

Notwithstanding the terrible events of September and its initial effects on the economy the nation’s finances are basically sound. Although the economics of the airline industry may have fundamentally changed, this recession may well prove to be milder than many believe at this moment.

Unlike the economic picture going into the 1990 recession, both banking and the housing industries are strong today.  Unlike the 1981 recession scenario, we do not have a tremendous amount of excess industrial capacity nor are inventories at record highs. Unlike the 1973-1974 recession oil prices haven’t tripled. And, unlike any previous recession of the last thirty years the economy has low interest rates and a very low rate of inflation.

The cost of borrowed dollars used to ignite a recovery’s flames are cheap and those dollars will preserve their purchasing power. An “official recovery” could begin as early as the first quarter of next year and probably no later than the second, if, as it now appears likely, we actually experience the classical definition of a recession with two consecutive negative quarters of decline.

How Will Indexed Annuities Be Affected
For the last ten months annual reset annuities using a point-to-point crediting method had credited zero interest. In fact, you’d have to go back to the days of last November’s election to find interest on an account statement. If an index annuity used averaging methodologies you may have earned 1%, 3%, maybe even as high as 4 1/2% interest if your policy anniversary date was last January or February, but you’ve flat lined ever since. For term end point structures, measuring index movement over a number of years, it looks a lot like 1998 because the S&P 500 is at the same place. At the beginning of September, based on where the market was a year ago and where it was before the tragic events, we were looking at a minimum of four and probably at least six more months of zero index annuity returns. Even with what has happened, we may still only be looking at another six months before some index annuities post positive annual returns simply because the indexes were already down last Spring.

Participation Rates
In addition to a weaker economic picture and a dicey stock market outlook, participation rates and caps will be falling and yield spreads rising in the foreseeable future.

Index annuity crediting rates are driven by interest rates and option prices. Interest rates will continue to fall as the government tries to stimulate the economy and investors move to safety. Low rates means more of the premium dollar will be needed to protect the minimum guarantee leaving less money to buy options. On top of this, option prices have spiked and will remain historically high for at least awhile.

What this means is the industry could show the lowest rates seen to date. Spreads could be nearer their contract maximums and caps closer to their minimums.

Consumer Psychology
In times of crisis many people adopt a bunker mentality. People quit spending, quit investing, and avoid making decisions. The last time this happened in 1990 Americans collectively withdrew from the economy on the day Iraq invaded Kuwait and didn’t reemerge until the land war began.

Neither the economy nor markets may find direction until America’s initial response is given, fears of retaliation addressed and muted, and the long range consequences assessed and dealt with. When this happens the economic and market cycles will resume their path and recovery will commence. Until this happens, the economy and markets will drift.

In spite of today’s clouds, the long term outlook for the economy, stock market and index annuities remains strong. The world’s strongest economic and military force with nearly 300 million united citizens has allied most of the world in a fight to exterminate a thousand cowards and will prevail. Although the next few months will be trying, the next year will witness a strong recovery

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Market Reactions to Crisis

Percentage Change in the Dow
Measured From The Day Before The Crisis

Pearl Harbor
Next Business Day -3.52%
One Week Later -4.63%
One Year Later -1.37%
Five Years Later +46.65%

Korean War
Next Business Day -4.68
One Week Later -7.13%
One Year Later +9.31%
Five Years Later +100.49%

Kennedy Assassination
Next Business Day -2.89%
One Week Later +2.43%
One Year Later +21.37%
Five Years Later +31.99%

Oklahoma City Bombing
Next Business Day +0.68%
One Week Later +2.89%
One Year Later +32.46%
Five Years Later +155.44%

September Cowards
Next Business Day -4.92%
One Week Later -8.15%
One Year Later ? 
Five Years Later ? 

Goldilocks And Modern Portfolio Theory   Return to Library Index

Once upon a time there were three bears who dreamed of a honey filled retirement. Year after year they contributed to their Bear Retirement Accounts with each utilizing a different investment vehicle from the other. One day after saving for a number of years the three bears decided to ask a financial consultant if they were on track for retirement.
 

The people at Goldilocks Financial Advisors reviewed the portfolios of the three bears and came back with these projections.

The first bear had gone to a banker for retirement advice and so the money was deposited in certificates of deposit and although the principal was very safe from loss it wasn’t earning very much. Goldilocks projected that at the current rate of return the first bear’s retirement would be spent sitting in a cabin on the Red River near Fargo.

The second bear used the internet for financial advice and was invested 100% in stocks. Although the second bear’s portfolio had certainly outperformed the first bear’s it was subject to the full risk of the stock market and in fact it had dropped over 35% in the last year and a half. Goldilocks was unable to make a projection due to the extreme volatility of the portfolio. Goldilocks told the second bear that with the lack of safeguards in the portfolio retirement could be relaxing on a yacht on the Riviera or a twilight career greeting people at the local discount store.
The third bear was a prudent bear. This bear wanted the opportunity for more than the bank would allow and yet protection of the principal and credited gains from market loss. The third bear had used indexed annuities to plan for retirement. Goldilocks congratulated the third bear and projected a retirement filled with sweetness and light due to the potential & safety of indexed annuities.

The moral of the story is even bears benefit from index annuities

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Bear Market Opportunity  Return to Library Index
As September closes the S&P 500 is hovering around 1000, eighteen months ago the index closed at 1527. From all appearances this is the second most severe bear market to hit in the last half century and when it will end nobody knows. The stock market picture is bleak and we could continue sliding for the rest of the year. All of this negativity leads to one conclusion - Oh, what a wonderful time it is to be buying an index annuity!

I don’t know when the economy will rebound. I don’t know where the S&P 500 index will be a decade hence, but I do believe the S&P 500 will recover its lost ground and push through to new heights with index annuity owners benefiting.

Let’s look at annual reset designs. At today’s nominal rates most of the annual reset structures are crediting 40% to 50% of what the index actually does. Let’s translate all that. If the index takes a year to get to 1100 - which would match the market bottom of last Spring - most annual reset annuities would credit 5%. 5% is nothing to jump up and down about, but it is still respectable in a 4% bank world.

If the S&P 500 index got back to 1200, most annual reset annuities would credit 10% interest, and we’d still only have regained 200 points of our bear slide.

If the S&P 500 took two years to make it back to 1400, many annual reset index annuities would post back-to-back double digit returns and we’re not talking about exploring new ground, the index would still be over a hundred points beneath the previous high.

Index annuities with term end point structures measuring movement over a number of years offer tremendous opportunity. If the index took three years to regain its high, and maintained that pace of growth, term yield spread instruments like ING USG Generation Pro and Horizon, or Midland National Legacy would be looking at 11%-12% net annual returns.

Even if it took four years for the index to regroup a nine year Jackson National Elite 90 or a Great American EquiLink would have about a 40% head start on the rest of their term and that’s after applying the participation rate. These term end point structures offer crediting certainty with no moving parts and competitive rates; the only variable is index performance.

Even in the worst bear market in a generation no index annuity owner has lost a dollar of premium and now index annuities are poised to capitalize on the next bull market. If there ever was a time to be telling the index annuity story that time is now.

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Retirement Lost (and found)   Return to Library Index
“The stock market dropped for the fourth straight day as the major indexes continued to plummet. This market can’t seem to find a bottom and no one knows how much further stocks will fall
,”
reported the television anchor as the evening news began. Phyllis just shook her head because she didn’t want to think about what was happening to her retirement savings.

Two years ago everything was perfect. In 1999 alone the increase in the value of her IRA was more than she had earned from her job. Back then she knew that she’d be able to retire on time and do more of the volunteer work that was becoming her passion, but now? The ringing phone interrupted her thoughts.

“Phyllis, this is Bill,” it was her friend from work calling. “Did you happen to catch the financial news?”

“Oh Bill I did, isn’t it terrible?” Phyllis replied.

“Yeah” said Bill. “As near as I can figure I’ve lost 35% of my retirement money in this market, and I was hoping to pull the plug next year and play golf all day. I guess I’ll be working a lot longer then I planned. How are you holding up?”

“I don’t know,” said Phyllis, “Early last year my advisor helped me move my IRA into some index that she said offered more protection from market loss.”

Bill opined “Phyllis, I guarantee you there’s no such thing as an index that protects you from market loss. If there were everyone would own one. I guess we’ll both be working at our jobs a lot longer than either of us planned.”

As Phyllis got off the phone she felt her stomach knot. All of her goals and dreams were going to disappear in this bear market. Last Spring when it appeared that this downturn was only going to last a few months was one thing, but it now seemed like the market would never go back up. Well, she might as well schedule an appointment with her financial advisor and see how badly she’d been hurt. Phyllis found her advisor’s card and dialed the number.

“Barbara,” she began “This is Phyllis. I’m sorry to call you this late, but I was hoping to come in and see you tomorrow to talk about how much money I’ve lost.”

“Phyllis, of course I’d be happy to see you, but I’m a little confused. What lost money?” asked Barbara.

“Well” Phyllis continued, “The stock market has been awful this last year and my friends tell me they’ve lost thousands and thousands of dollars. I felt I should face the music and see how long I’ll have to delay my retirement.”

“Oh, I see,” responded Barbara, “Perhaps I can ease your mind a little. During our annual review of your portfolio in the Spring of last year do you remember telling me that even though your IRA was going up in value, that you were still very uncomfortable with the volatility of the stock market?”

“Yes. I didn’t like the fact that I could lose what I gained if the stock market went down,” said Phyllis.

“Exactly” Barbara replied, “You told me that you were willing to accept a lower potential return if your principal was protected from market risk, correct?”

“Yes.”

“So, last year we transferred your IRA money into a combination of fixed interest annuities and fixed indexed annuities. The fixed interest annuities produce a guaranteed interest rate and the fixed indexed annuities give you the potential for a higher return because the interest earned is linked to an equity index. Since this equity-linked interest is earned inside a fixed annuity neither the interest credited to it nor the original principal can ever be lost if the market goes down.”

“I haven’t lost any money?”

“No, the fixed interest annuity paid a guaranteed interest rate and the indexed annuities credited zero interest due to the bear market, but of course when the index goes back up you’ll share in the growth and over the coming years the indexed annuity can produce a lot more interest.”

“So, I didn’t lose any money?”

“No, you didn’t lose any money,” said Barbara smiling as the call ended and Phyllis said goodbye.

When Barbara reached her office the next morning there was a rather large chocolate cake sitting on her desk. On the cake was written “Thank you for saving my retirement”. Barbara didn’t need a card to tell her whom the cake was from. As Barbara prepared for her first client meeting of the day the phone rang “This is Bill, I work with Phyllis. When can I come into see you about these indexed annuities…?”

A Year of Zero Returns   Top 
The last time index annuities with annual point-to-point crediting methods posted a positive return was the first week of November, 2000. Annual reset structures averaging index values credited interest, albeit meager, through most of the first quarter of this year, but have since credited zero interest.

When will policy ledgers show positive results? Annual point-to-point designed annuities should credit some interest by March, 2001. The reason for this optimism is S&P 500 index values are currently hanging around 1100 and values last March were in the 1100 range, so even a small market boost would turn point-to-point numbers positive.

If you break past stock markets movement into blocks almost every multiple year holding period has at least one bad year

The road out of the valley for products using index averaging could be longer. The bear rally resulted in a string of second quarter values around 1200. However, any positive effects of the bear rally on the averaging formula have been more than offset by the general malaise following the September drop. This could well mean that any averaging designed products purchased through the Summer of this year will credit no interest on their first policy anniversary.

However, looking at the big picture, an index annuity with a zero interest year or two during its term is the norm, not the exception. If you look at annual S&P 500 returns over the last 50 years and group together consecutive years, every counting period of nine years or greater has at least one down year and the vast majority have two. Indeed, even five, six and seven year index terms almost always contain a bad year.

The positive aspect is a zero 2002 return will mean index values are still well below the previous market high and this sets up a strong case for above average index growth in subsequent contract years.

Fixed Index Annuities   Top 
Back in 1994 when the concept of using movements of a stock index to determine the interest that would be credited to a fixed annuity was coming to fruition the players decided that since this excess interest crediting was based on an equity index, as opposed to a bond index, they would call these new critters Equity Indexed Annuities. Agents and consumers looked upon an EIA as a whole new instrument that would give them upside potential while protecting their principal from market loss.

“What’s wrong with this Equity Index Annuity? The equity market went up 20% but my Annuity only paid me 14%!”

A problem which surfaced early was that when you talked about Equity Indexed Annuities, regardless of how well you expressed the concept and notwithstanding the caveats and return limitations contained within your presentation, many people heard the word “equity” and created unrealistic return expectations in their own minds. I had calls back in 1998 and 1999 from people that were incensed when their index annuity only returned 12% or 14%. Some agents were turning away from index annuities because the credited interest realized was “only” double that of traditional fixed annuities. In fact, index annuities were performing just like they were supposed to, the problem is that the word “equity” distorted return expectations.

“My son says I shouldn’t invest in equities. Please cash in my index annuity and put my money in a 3% money market account.”

I’ve recently been hearing from some agents that say they can’t sell equity index annuities because their prospects were burnt by the stock market and turn pale when the word “equity” is mentioned. The stock market has been nasty for the last year and a half, many investors have lost all of their paper gains for the last three years and more recent market entrants have lost principal, but no index annuity owner has lost one dollar of premium or credited interest to the bear market during this entire period. Once again, index annuities performed just like they were supposed to by protecting owners from market loss.

Unfortunately, agents don’t have lines running out of their offices and into the streets from people wanting to buy this powerful and proven savings tool.

One of the reasons for this lack of consumer enthusiasm is because more than a few conservative savers have sworn off equities and don’t want to hear about another equity instrument, even if it is an annuity. The “E” word has created negative false product expectations.

No market risk to principal, interest already credited to the policy is protected, minimum guarantees...these features are all associated with annuities not equities.

An index annuity is a fixed annuity typically using an optionable market index as a basis for excess interest. Unlike equity investments, bonds or index funds the annuity owner cannot lose principal even if the index declines - no stock market risk to principal is a feature of a fixed annuity. Unlike equity or bond vehicles the annuity owner cannot lose credited interest even if the index drops - protection of credited interest is a feature of a fixed annuity. Although stock markets over time have generally trended higher, there’s no guarantee that an index will be higher than its starting point at the end of a specified period. Unlike any other vehicle out there the annuity owner will receive a guaranteed minimum return which will at the very least give back the premium at the end of an agreed upon period - guaranteed minimum returns are a feature if fixed annuities. In point of fact then, isn’t it more accurate to call these saving vessels Fixed Index Annuities?

Fixed Index Annuity does a better job of telling a consumer how these instruments will perform.

The appellation Fixed Index Annuity creates realistic return expectation in both good and bad markets. No one should be surprised when the stock market jumps 20% and the fixed annuity with an index credits 9%, and no one should be concerned when the stock market drops because everyone knows a fixed annuity protects premium and credited interest.

The index annuity business is in a wonderful position to grow when the stock market renews its upward climb. The marketing of fixed index annuities lessens potential market conduct concerns while generating realistic return expectations in both bull and bear markets.

Welcome Back To 1998    Top 
As October, 2001 closes the S&P 500 around 1100, the yield on the 10 year Treasury is around 4.5%, and the New York Yankees are in the World Series. Three years ago on All Saints Eve the S&P 500 closed at 1099, the 10 year Treasury yield was 4.6% and the Yankees had won the World Series.

It isn’t exactly the same. Three years ago Mr. Greenspan and other central bankers had managed to avoid a global crisis by easing rates and adding liquidity to the financial markets, thus averting a global recession and keeping growth on an accelerating pace. Today, the economy is probably in a recession and the same tactics used in 1998 are having less of an effect as the markets continue to attempt to digest and move pass the excesses of 1999 and 2000.

Falling interest rates and increased market volatility have squeezed index annuity margins with many carriers lowering caps or increasing fees in the last six weeks. A measure of comfort in all of this is we’ve been in the same place before and ultimately prospered.

The graph shows the closing daily values of the S&P 100 Option Volatility Index from the beginning of July to the end of October for 1998 and 2001. In both cases as Summer began the index was around a level of 20, rose to the mid 40s and then fell back to a level of 30 at the end of the period. Although similar, you may notice that option volatility in 1998 rose to higher points and remained at higher levels longer than for the same period in 2001. Relative volatility and option prices are at a generally lower level than they were for the same period in 1998. In addition, 10 year Treasuries for both years presented almost identical stories as they began July with yields around 5.3% to 5.5% and ended October at 4.5% to 4.6%.

What this means is November’s index annuity crediting factors will be lower than they were last Summer, but shouldn’t drop as much as first believed. The current situation combines index values that are 25% to 30%, or more, below their all time highs and participation rates that remain competitive. Index annuities are well positioned to capitalize on stock market climbs and generate policy interest that far exceeds fixed rate alternatives. Predicting future index annuity participation factors is much more difficult.

In 1998 option volatility remained around October’s level for the next six months, but interest rates began moving back up from October’s low point with 10 year Treasuries yielding around 5.25% by the following March. The stability of option prices, combined with a rising interest curve, enabled many carriers to increase participation rates above November’s levels.

In 2001 the economy is weak. Lower interest rates are almost a certainty in the months to come and a lower interest environment puts downward pressure on index annuity pricing components. But, option volatility may subside more quickly than it did three years ago resulting in lower option prices which would help offset lower interest rate pressures and support index annuity prices.

The short answer is the future direction of the market and index annuity participation rates is unknown. The positives are that index annuities are competitive today and stock market indexes will generate enormous gains by merely returning to where they once stood.

Tax Act Opportunities    Top 
The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 greatly increases the ability of Americans to save for retirement by increasing contribution limits on qualified plans, eliminates the estate tax, and provides significant financial incentives for education. While many of the benefits aren’t fully realized for a few years, many others come into play next year. These tax changes offer exceptional opportunities for astute financial counselors.

People Have A Little Bigger Check. Thanks to a new 10% bracket and a 1% rate cut most people will have at least $50 more a month in take home pay starting in January.

$50 More A Month Could
Begin Funding an Education IRA
Be Added to 401(k) or TSA Contributions
Pay the Premium for New Life, Health or Disability Insurance
Begin a  Dollar-Cost-Averaging Mutual Fund Plan
Enable a Small Business to Finally Convince Employees to Contribute to a Pension Plan.

It’s Easier To Contribute To A Pension Plan. The definition of a “Highly Compensated Employee” has been relaxed and compliance safe harbors expanded. Owners and top employees may contribute more for themselves and receive more of the employer contribution.

Maximum contributions to 401(k) and 403(b) plans increases from $10,500 to $11,000 and workers over age 50 can kick in an additional $1,000 (SIMPLE plan limits rise to $7,000 and workers age 50+ can add $500)

Annual Compensation Limit increases from $170,000 to $200,000, dollar contribution limit rises from $35,000 to $40,000, and percentage limits go from 25% to 100% of compensation.

It’s Easier For Small Employers Without A Pension Plan To Start One. Most business with fewer than a hundred employees do not offer a pension plan. The usual reasons cited are compliance headaches, administrative hassles and limited participation. The 2001 Tax Act makes it more attractive for a small employer to offer a pension plan.

Employers may offer 401(k) or SIMPLE plans with fewer compliance headaches

Employers can get $500 tax credit to offset the first $1,000 of new plan administrative and employee plan education fees for three years

And Employees will have $50 more in their monthly paycheck beginning next year. A plan scheduled to begin in January could help employees save for their future by deducting their pension contribution before they see and spend the extra money.

Your IRA Revenue Base Increases 50% to 75% In 2002. Clients contributing $2,000 to their 2001 IRA may be able to contribute $3,000 in 2002; $3,500 if they were born before Eisenhower became President. Low income taxpayers get a tax credit for IRA Contributions.

Bigger IRA Contributions With Rising Limits Means an Expanding Base Without Adding New Clients

Parents Could Gift Money For IRA Contributions to Struggling Adult Children & the Children could get a Tax Credit too

New MRD Rules make IRA Planning Easier and a Reason to meet with age 70+ Clients & Prospects

Rollover Rapture. Today, qualified plan monies have limitations on where they may go. In 2002, eligible rollovers from IRAs, 403(b) plans and qualified pension plans may be rolled over into any qualified plan accepting rollovers or into an IRA, or into a plan, then into an IRA, and then back into the plan.

Move to Consolidate Client and Prospect 403(b) accounts, 401(k) IRAs and regular IRAs into one Super Charged IRA.  

Many people have pension “pieces” from jobs they’ve left, be alert for consolidation opportunities.  

Qualified Funds Rollover Relief and Minimum Required Distribution enhancements Make every Retiree a Prospect

In Summary. The 2001 Tax Act is a winner for the financial services industry. People have more money in their pocket and their tax burden should decrease in the years to come. In these turbulent times the 2001 Tax Act even provides an unintended gift to financial counselors... a “Good News” reason to call clients.

“Tax Act Opportunities” is from The Advantage Group CE course Using the 2001 Tax Act for Fun & Profit. Although information is believed accurate it is not warranted and is not tax advice. Individuals should always consult their tax advisor for their own situation

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Top

FIAs Average 8.7%? Interest Over Last 5 Years 
Although The Advantage Group recently began asking carriers to provide actual index annuity return information, our current data base is insufficient to let us determine the average actual interest rate credited by index annuity policies.  However, we can determine the index movements for past periods, as well as the crediting method and rates in use for all index products.

We went back and determined what each index annuity “should have” credited, based on their rate and the index movements at the time, for all of the annual reset products on the market from 1997 through November 2001. We looked at the first year return for 52 annual periods each year. Average credited interest was:

1997 14.12% The day you bought the annuity and which crediting method was used greatly affected returns. As an example, even though the average annuity in 1999 produced a 10.57% interest rate, actual credited interest within the year ranged from 1% to 38%.

These are hypothetical results and may or may not represent actual credited interest rates for the period, but the numbers do give an indication of the range of returns.

1998 13.11%
1999 10.57%
2000 6.11%
2001 0.50%
5 Year Average 8.70%

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3rd Quarter FIA Sales Up 31% From Previous Year  Top
Third quarter index annuity sales were $1.59 billion. Sales were up 31% when compared with the third quarter of 2000 and down 0.75% from the previous record setting quarter. Sales for the first nine months of 2001 are $4.45 billion, which means less than a billion dollars of sales are needed in the fourth quarter to produce a sixth consecutive year of record-breaking index product sales.

By a narrow margin, Midland National ended the Allianz string of five quarters as the largest provider of index annuities. Eight carriers reported increases in sales from the previous quarter. The combined market share of the top ten players is 87%.

Index Annuity Third Quarter Sales Leaders

Midland National  $ 325,600,000
Allianz     324,696,000
American Equity     220,282,714
AmerUS Group     130,934,227
Jackson National      85,938,395
Conseco      82,377,654
Keyport Life      67,391,000
North American      62,000,000
ING USG Annuity      42,986,539
Fidelity & Guaranty      42,011,000

Less than one out of every twenty index annuity sales is made by financial institutions and broker/dealers. Jackson National and Keyport are key players in both the bank and wirehouse channels.

The average index annuity premium was $33,032 which was ten percent higher than the previous quarter, average premium ranged from $2,186 to $51,725. Less than half of index annuities were purchased with qualified funds.

Index annuities with surrender periods of ten years or longer accounted for four out of five sales. The length of the average surrender period has steadily increased over the years. Based on premium, the weighted surrender period on product sold is 11.75 years.

The greatest sales growth was in index annuities with an initial premium bonus, and more new product launches include bonuses. Our surveys indicate that the rise of index annuities sales has been somewhat unique, to date, because over half of the new index annuity premiums are coming from non-annuity assets. It would appear the industry is attempting to change this.

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Tax Act Opportunities  Top
The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 provides significant financial incentives for education. These tax changes offer exceptional opportunities for astute financial counselors.

College Tuition Deduction & Tax Credits
The Act provides for an above-the-line deduction for qualified higher education costs. Taxpayers meeting adjusted gross income thresholds (below $65,000 - single, $130,000 - joint) will be entitled to a tuition deduction of $3,000 in 2002. In 2004 the deduction increases to $4,000. After 2005 the deduction is scheduled to go away.

HOPE and Lifetime Learning tax credits remain the same. A taxpayer may take either the deduction or the credit, but not both. It appears to make more sense to take the HOPE tax credit, rather than the deduction, if your taxable income is under $80,000. The Lifetime Learning Credit is probably better than the deduction if you’re under $60,000 to $70,000 in income.

Section 529 Plans
State sponsored college savings plans now offer tax-free growth and tax-free cash, when accounts are used to pay college expenses. Money does not have to be used for colleges within the plan state, and may be moved from state plan to state plan as desired. The quality of state mandated investment options varies greatly, with some states offering low fixed rate accounts and others offering age based portfolio management.

Education IRAs
The Act
- quadruples the contribution ceiling for Education IRAs from $500 to $2,000 beginning in 2002.

- the AGI limits for joint filers wishing to fund Education IRAs w ill jump to $190,000 - $220,000

- contributions may also be made by corporations and tax-exempt entities 

- permits Education IRA distributions to be paid for elementary and secondary school educational expenses as well as colleges

- allows you to take tax-free Education distributions and HOPE or Lifetime Learning tax credits in same tax year

- unlike State plans, the taxpayer controls how the funds are invested, not the government

The expanded Education IRAis an incredible opportunity for financial service providers. Programs, products, seminars and marketing campaigns will be designed to create annual contribution plans targeting parents, grandparents, corporations, churches, schools and organizations.

Although information is believed accurate it is not warranted and is not tax advice. Individuals should always consult their tax advisor for their own situation.

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I Hate PowerPoint  Top
Let me be clear on this. It isn’t that I prefer something else, as someone would prefer a baked potato rather than rice. It isn’t that I dislike it, as one might dislike rainy days. No, I really hate PowerPoint and here’s why.

Way back, when I began speaking to groups, I used a chalkboard to help express my ideas to the audience and this worked rather well. I was then told about a new advancement in visual aids called a slide projector. The people pushing this new technology said it would enable me to add color to my presentation and provide visually stimulating graphics, which would help me communicate with my intended audience.

I started showing slides to the audience and the images were better than anything I could draw. I had people coming up afterwards and telling me that they had never seen such vivid colors in a pie chart. However, I noticed that the audience involvement when I used my slide presentation was worse than when I simply scratched figures with chalk. I wasn’t getting the group commitment that I used to get.

I figured out what was wrong. When I spoke and used my chalkboard, the audience regarded me as the teacher. They related to me on an individual level and a personal bond developed. However, when I used the slide projector I was perceived as the host, or maybe the emcee. Even though I was still speaking, the audience now looked upon me as the announcer, instead of the teacher. The audience was no longer listening to an expert share a perspective; instead the group felt like they were watching TV and my position was superfluous.

Slide shows that came with their own audio track were even worse. When my technologically perfect slide show presented both images and stereo sound, I slid down the slope in the audience mind from announcer to usher. In fact, I still have the quarter tip I got for finding one gentleman an aisle seat.

Whether one is trying to sell a product or a service or an idea, a large part of the success of that sale is the group perception of the presenter. Visual aids, which enhance the speaker’s position, are good. However, when the medium becomes the message the sales success rate goes down.

I quit using slides. I liked the idea of color, so I began drawing on easel pads using colored markers. But sometimes my writing was sloppy and people couldn’t read it. And if the group was large, some people couldn’t see my easel. I then discovered the Overhead Projector. This was a wonderful tool. I could use all of the slide graphics to convey more complex concepts. And I could scribble on the transparencies, thus showing the group that I was indeed the expert because I had the power to change the printed word. Life was good.

A few years ago Microsoft discovered they couldn’t buy the patent on overhead projectors, so they developed PowerPoint. Using PowerPoint meant:

Paying hundreds of dollars for new software and hundreds more for updates; 
Buying a PowerPoint projector costing thirty to sixty times more than an overhead projector;
 Lugging both a laptop and projector through airports;
and 

for some inexplicable reason, being limited to always expressing thoughts in groups of three (Have you ever seen the Gettysburg Address in PowerPoint? It’s frightening.)

In spite of all these other penalties, the real reason I hate PowerPoint is we have taken the biggest negative of a slide show - turning the active teacher-student relationship into a passive announcer-viewer one - and made it worse by further stressing the medium and not the content. The speaker is again the emcee. Many venues attempt to make the speaker’s position even less important by demanding copies of the PowerPoint slide presentation in advance, which are handed out to the audience prior to the performance, so the audience can totally ignore the speaker. I tell these people that I’ll throw in an audiotape, a life-size cardboard cutout of myself, and not come at all, thereby saving the travel costs.

Jack Marrion spends his days listening to records on his Philco turntable while petitioning networks to bring variety shows back.

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Index Annuity Commission Rates Continue To Increase  Top    
In the third quarter of 2001 the average weighted agent commission received represented 10.62% of premium. Average commission paid by carrier, based on a weighted average of actual product sales, ranged from 3.37% to 14.19%.

In the third quarter of 1999 the average weighted agent commission received represented 9.03% of premium. Average commission paid by carrier, based on a weighted average of actual product sales, ranged from 3.14% to 14.48%.

Average Agent Commission Paid The commissions paid on index annuities have steadily increased. The average commission as a percentage of premium paid rose 31% from the third quarter of 1998 to the third quarter of 2001.

In 1998 index annuities with agent commissions in the 5%-6% range predominated accounting for 55% of sales. By the third quarter of 2001 sales of products with these lower commissions represented merely 9% of total sales.

1998 8.05%
1999 9.03%
2000 10.91%
2001 10.62%

 The chart shows the weighted average actual commission, sorted by carrier in ascending order, for the third quarters of 1999 and 2001.

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Copyright 2008 Jack Marrion, Advantage Compendium Ltd., St. Louis, MO (314) 434-6030. webmaster at indexannuity.org. All information is for illustrative purposes only,  does not provide investment or tax advice.  No index sponsors, promotes, or makes any representation regarding any index product. Information is from sources believed accurate but is not warranted. Advantage Compendium neither markets nor endorses any financial product.